Preseason Rankings
New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#93
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#180
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.0% 46.3% 27.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 2.9% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.9
.500 or above 93.6% 95.8% 83.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.5% 97.3% 93.0%
Conference Champion 47.9% 50.9% 34.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.6% 1.4% 2.8%
First Round42.4% 45.7% 26.8%
Second Round10.5% 11.8% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 3.9% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 82.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.00.1 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.2 - 0.60.2 - 1.6
Quad 21.2 - 1.71.5 - 3.3
Quad 36.2 - 3.27.7 - 6.5
Quad 413.2 - 1.620.9 - 8.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 199   North Dakota St. W 72-65 82%    
  Nov 09, 2018 249   UTEP W 73-63 89%    
  Nov 14, 2018 59   St. Mary's L 65-69 47%    
  Nov 17, 2018 92   @ New Mexico L 75-76 38%    
  Nov 28, 2018 249   @ UTEP W 73-63 73%    
  Dec 01, 2018 191   Washington St. W 76-69 79%    
  Dec 04, 2018 92   New Mexico L 75-76 60%    
  Dec 08, 2018 1   @ Kansas L 65-80 6%    
  Dec 17, 2018 172   Northern Colorado W 76-70 77%    
  Dec 19, 2018 342   Cal St. Northridge W 77-58 97%    
  Dec 22, 2018 202   Drake W 74-67 73%    
  Dec 23, 2018 191   Washington St. W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 30, 2018 180   @ Colorado St. W 75-69 61%    
  Jan 03, 2019 288   @ California Baptist W 76-64 78%    
  Jan 10, 2019 114   Grand Canyon W 70-68 64%    
  Jan 12, 2019 204   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-61 82%    
  Jan 17, 2019 244   @ Seattle W 74-64 71%    
  Jan 19, 2019 152   @ Utah Valley W 72-68 55%    
  Jan 26, 2019 311   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-69 81%    
  Jan 31, 2019 279   UMKC W 77-66 89%    
  Feb 02, 2019 350   Chicago St. W 85-63 98%    
  Feb 07, 2019 204   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-61 65%    
  Feb 09, 2019 114   @ Grand Canyon W 70-68 46%    
  Feb 14, 2019 152   Utah Valley W 72-68 73%    
  Feb 16, 2019 244   Seattle W 74-64 85%    
  Feb 23, 2019 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-69 92%    
  Feb 28, 2019 279   @ UMKC W 77-66 75%    
  Mar 02, 2019 350   @ Chicago St. W 85-63 93%    
  Mar 09, 2019 288   California Baptist W 76-64 89%    
Projected Record 20.9 - 8.1 12.4 - 3.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.7 10.2 14.8 12.8 5.8 47.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.7 9.3 7.0 1.8 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 5.0 2.2 0.3 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.0 0.2 3.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.1 3.4 5.4 7.9 12.0 15.3 17.4 16.6 12.8 5.8 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 5.8    5.8
15-1 100.0% 12.8    12.1 0.7
14-2 89.1% 14.8    11.3 3.5 0.0
13-3 58.3% 10.2    5.6 3.9 0.7 0.0
12-4 24.5% 3.7    1.2 1.9 0.5 0.1
11-5 5.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 47.9% 47.9 36.0 10.3 1.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 5.8% 88.9% 81.3% 7.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 40.4%
15-1 12.8% 75.5% 70.9% 4.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.8 2.3 1.2 0.2 3.1 15.9%
14-2 16.6% 57.0% 55.2% 1.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.1 4.0%
13-3 17.4% 48.2% 47.8% 0.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.3 9.0 0.7%
12-4 15.3% 31.0% 30.9% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.4 10.5 0.1%
11-5 12.0% 23.0% 23.0% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 9.2
10-6 7.9% 19.3% 19.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 6.4
9-7 5.4% 14.5% 14.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 4.6
8-8 3.4% 9.6% 9.6% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.1
7-9 2.1% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9
6-10 0.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-11 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 43.0% 41.6% 1.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 3.7 8.1 10.5 9.0 5.2 2.4 57.0 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.5 7.7 8.0 25.2 48.7 9.7 0.6